--- title: Factors That Will Shape the Air Cargo Market in H2 2026 description: Discover why CIF shipments may expose you to risks and costs, and learn how FOB/EXW with MTF offers better control, visibility, and protection. image: https://news.mtflogistics.com.au/hubfs/21.webp --- [Skip to content](https://news.mtflogistics.com.au/mtf-logistics-pty-ltd-blog/factors-that-will-shape-the-air-cargo-market-in-h2-2026#main-content) ![](https://news.mtflogistics.com.au/hs-fs/hubfs/21.webp?width=1600&height=1067&name=21.webp) # Factors That Will Shape the Air Cargo Market in H2 2026 ![Daniel](https://app.hubspot.com/settings/avatar/d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e) Daniel August 14, 2026 ![22](https://442310841.fs1.hubspotusercontent-ap1.net/hub/442310841/hubfs/22.jpg?width=1200&length=1200&name=22.jpg) The slowing global economy will equally slow the air cargo market in the second half (H2) of 2026. The air cargo market was stable as the year started despite shifting US policies and geopolitical conflicts. However, the onset of the Iran war in February wiped about 12% of global capacity. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused fuel volatility and high fuel prices. Fuel prices have eased but remain at higher than usual levels. The following factors will shape the air cargo market in the second half of 2026. Slowing Global Demand and Capacity Global air cargo demand increased 4% year-on-year at the end of June. A slowing global economy will end up dampening growth in backend of 2026. Demand will remain higher compared to capacity growth as aircraft manufacturers fail to build enough widebody airplanes. Aircraft manufacturer supply chains are yet to fully recover since the COVID-19 pandemic. Increasing Rates Shipper rates will rise as a ripple effect of the Iran war. The US-Iran conflict has caused both network and fuel volatility that have had a big impact on long-term contracting. Forwarders are compelled to procure up to 50% of air freight volumes on the spot market. Rates have increased driven by fluctuating jet fuel prices and high demand. A potential scool-down of hostilities will see jet fuel prices fall and spot rates decline. AI Equipment Demand to Drive Growth AI hardware and semiconductor demand are behind exceptional growth for the air cargo sector. In H2 and beyond 2026, high value and time-sensitive AI hardware and semiconductor shipments will provide the biggest growth engine for air cargo on select corridors.  ## Share this post [mailto:https%3A%2F%2Fnews.mtflogistics.com.au%2Fmtf-logistics-pty-ltd-blog%2Ffactors-that-will-shape-the-air-cargo-market-in-h2-2026](mailto:https%3A%2F%2Fnews.mtflogistics.com.au%2Fmtf-logistics-pty-ltd-blog%2Ffactors-that-will-shape-the-air-cargo-market-in-h2-2026) ## Keep reading ### [![](https://news.mtflogistics.com.au/hs-fs/hubfs/21.jpg?width=6720&height=4480&name=21.jpg) Australia Working to Double Horticulture Exports](https://news.mtflogistics.com.au/mtf-logistics-pty-ltd-blog/australia-working-to-double-horticulture-exports) ### [![](https://news.mtflogistics.com.au/hs-fs/hubfs/20-1.jpg?width=6000&height=3000&name=20-1.jpg) Australian Exports to Iraq Post a 97.5% Drop in Q2](https://news.mtflogistics.com.au/mtf-logistics-pty-ltd-blog/australian-exports-to-iraq-post-a-97.5-drop-in-q2) [MTF Logistics](https://www.mtflogistics.com.au/) [Sea Freight](https://www.mtflogistics.com.au/sea-freight/) [Air Freight](https://www.mtflogistics.com.au/air-freight/) [Customs Clearance](https://www.mtflogistics.com.au/customs-clearance/) [Freight Forwarding](https://www.mtflogistics.com.au/freight-forwarding/) [Guides](https://www.mtflogistics.com.au/category/freight-logistics-insights/) [Get a Quote](https://www.mtflogistics.com.au/start/) ## About MTF Logistics MTF Logistics is an owner-managed freight forwarder based in North Sydney, operating since 2014. We handle [sea freight](https://www.mtflogistics.com.au/sea-freight/) (FCL and LCL), [air freight](https://www.mtflogistics.com.au/air-freight/), [customs clearance](https://www.mtflogistics.com.au/customs-clearance/), export documentation and project cargo through Port Botany, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Fremantle, with delivery Australia-wide. Call 1300 710 683 or [get a quote](https://www.mtflogistics.com.au/start/). ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Daniel", "url" : "https://news.mtflogistics.com.au/mtf-logistics-pty-ltd-blog/author/daniel" }, "dateModified" : "2026-08-14T21:30:23.402Z", "datePublished" : "2026-08-14T21:30:23.000Z", "headline" : "Factors That Will Shape the Air Cargo Market in H2 2026", "image" : [ "https://news.mtflogistics.com.au/hubfs/21.webp" ], "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://news.mtflogistics.com.au/mtf-logistics-pty-ltd-blog/factors-that-will-shape-the-air-cargo-market-in-h2-2026", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject" } } } ```